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Probability Cones
The probability cone software application can be used to provide a visual indication of the probable ranges of future asset prices and to dynamically model the impact on these prices by changing assumptions regarding volatility, expected return and time. The width of the cones at any point in time -- ie the range of underlying asset prices -- is heavily dependent on the underlying asset's volatility. The more volatile the underlying prices, the wider the expected range of future prices and hence the wider the cones. This information can help
options traders select the most appropriate strategy based on their view of
future volatility and/or future price direction.
Probability cones are shown graphically, and also in tabular form.
Probability bands can represent either "end of period" probabilities or "any
time" probabilities (as in the above example). "Any time" probability cones
are particularly useful for evaluating strategies on American options or barrier
options which may be knocked in or out at any time during the term of the
options.
See Finance Add-in for Excel
system requirements.
The Probability Cone application is free but requires the full version of the Hoadley Finance Add-in for Excel. The Probability Cone application is included with the full version of the Add-in and does not need to be downloaded separately. |
